germanicus
Junior Strategist
No jokes round ear...
Posts: 358
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Post by germanicus on Jan 19, 2018 23:09:49 GMT
I just woke up so this may not be the most profound answer in the world but... Oh, don't sweat it! I'm fairly certain there are things more profound than House Vyre Theme...!! Ah... I see where you're suffering caffeine deficiency, you've misallocated the AFG, but I get what you mean. In general, looks a bit... I'unno, unfocussed and takes bits and pieces from our other themes. My idea was...: Non-Shyeel casters Vyre non-character jacks Arcanist solos Vyre units, solos & battle engines (look at me, future proofing...!! ¬_¬ ) Houseguard units & models Fane Knight solos Stormfall Archers Usual Merc/Min BS Per 25pts jacks & battle engines, free solo Jacks get Defensive Strike House Vyre Electromancer units gain ROF 2 Was thinking of everything getting Immunity to Electricity just as a massive middle finger to Cygnar, but that doesn't really make that much sense, honestly... Regarding the Vyre heavies, the Banshee is fine IMO, the Daemon needs a solid rethink and the Sphinx is... OK? Alright, increase to general RNG 12 and RAT 6, Daemon 15pts and I'll actually have some incentive to take it.
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Deller
Junior Strategist
I’m on a Boat
Posts: 605
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Post by Deller on Jan 19, 2018 23:50:25 GMT
Someone did a detailed breakdown of caster and faction win percentages here. Thoughts? What’s the rationale behind not including mirror matches? I get not wanting to include mirror matches in a faction vs faction breakdown, but in a Caster vs Caster breakdown, where you’re factoring in caster popularity, why keep out games like the Round 1 Circle mirror between Trolls from Felix’s Basement & Malcontents where Una2 beat Krueger2. Krueger2 wasn’t dropped 7 times, he was dropped 8 times and only had a 37.5% win rate. Like, I get not wanting to include caster mirror matches in the caster win rate, but faction mirrors that aren’t caster mirrors should probably be included in the caster win rate, & even caster mirrors should be included in Times Dropped. These numbers are inaccurate as a result.
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skormedlover87
Junior Strategist
Desperately searching for days off to game...
Posts: 517
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Post by skormedlover87 on Jan 20, 2018 0:42:20 GMT
It's statistics. There is no "correct". There's what this dude wanted to look at. What you want to look at will be different. What I'd want is different still.
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Deller
Junior Strategist
I’m on a Boat
Posts: 605
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Post by Deller on Jan 20, 2018 2:23:55 GMT
It's statistics. There is no "correct". There's what this dude wanted to look at. What you want to look at will be different. What I'd want is different still. I mean I’m responding to a person asking for thoughts on the brakedown. My thoughts are the breakdown is incredibly misleading, especially if someone brought a list specifically teched out to deal with the mirror, or if there’s a list that becomes much worse into the mirror. Casters like Deneghra2, who was played a lot at the WTC specifically because of her abilities in the Ghost Fleet mirror, or a caster like Nemo3 who’s game into Storm Division is as close to an auto loss as you can get in Mark3 come to mind. I can understand not wanting to factor in games where Sorscha1 beat Sorscha1 to skew the win rate results, but the idea that we can just throw those games out of the statistics entirely just seems wrong. Cryx had 9 mirror matches that went unreported in this data. That means there’s 18 “times played” unaccounted for. The most popular caster, Skarre1 (which the author says themself, “lead the day as the most dropped Cryx caster”) was only played outside the mirror 16 times. With the Data we’ve been provided here it’s entirely possible, in fact it’s highly likely Skarre1 wasn’t actually the most played Cryx caster. Hell, two people brought Terminus, and according to these charts he was only played once. It’s entirely possible Terminus was played 10 times, only being brought as an answer to the mirror, and is actually the 3rd most popular caster played at this event. You wouldn’t know unless you actually looked at the data, which after doing so I discovered Skarre1 was dropped into the mirror twice. Deneghra1 was dropped into the mirror 6 times. The author’s claim that Skarre1 was the most dropped Cryx caster at this event is factually wrong. Skarre1 was dropped 18 times, Deneghra1 was dropped 20 times.
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skormedlover87
Junior Strategist
Desperately searching for days off to game...
Posts: 517
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Post by skormedlover87 on Jan 20, 2018 2:46:27 GMT
And I'm saying the guy who made that block of statistical data didn't care about that so he didn't include those numbers. If you do care about it that much, crunch the numbers yourself and display the results.
Me, I'm not a math person, so I'm not going to crunch the numbers at all. I know a bunch of WMH players are math inclined; programmers, mathematicians, overly educated farmers, and statistics speaks to them. Possibly it speaks to you. From the rest of us, we don't really care, whatever efforts you put forth on the math front are appreciated inasmuch as we can peer at the data. How you want to couch or present that data is up to you.
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Deller
Junior Strategist
I’m on a Boat
Posts: 605
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Post by Deller on Jan 20, 2018 3:23:49 GMT
And I'm saying the guy who made that block of statistical data didn't care about that so he didn't include those numbers. If you do care about it that much, crunch the numbers yourself and display the results. Me, I'm not a math person, so I'm not going to crunch the numbers at all. I know a bunch of WMH players are math inclined; programmers, mathematicians, overly educated farmers, and statistics speaks to them. Possibly it speaks to you. From the rest of us, we don't really care, whatever efforts you put forth on the math front are appreciated inasmuch as we can peer at the data. How you want to couch or present that data is up to you. It doesn’t really matter whether you care about mirror matches or not. The statement “Skarre1 lead the day as the most dropped Cryx caster with an astonishing 75% win rate.” is false. Skarre1 was not the most played Cryx caster, and she had a 66.67% win rate over all, winning 12/18 games.
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Post by welshhoppo on Jan 20, 2018 11:49:51 GMT
Someone did a detailed breakdown of caster and faction win percentages here. Thoughts? What’s the rationale behind not including mirror matches? I get not wanting to include mirror matches in a faction vs faction breakdown, but in a Caster vs Caster breakdown, where you’re factoring in caster popularity, why keep out games like the Round 1 Circle mirror between Trolls from Felix’s Basement & Malcontents where Una2 beat Krueger2. Krueger2 wasn’t dropped 7 times, he was dropped 8 times and only had a 37.5% win rate. Like, I get not wanting to include caster mirror matches in the caster win rate, but faction mirrors that aren’t caster mirrors should probably be included in the caster win rate, & even caster mirrors should be included in Times Dropped. These numbers are inaccurate as a result. It's because mirror matches move the results towards a 50/50 skew.
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Deller
Junior Strategist
I’m on a Boat
Posts: 605
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Post by Deller on Jan 20, 2018 12:29:10 GMT
What’s the rationale behind not including mirror matches? I get not wanting to include mirror matches in a faction vs faction breakdown, but in a Caster vs Caster breakdown, where you’re factoring in caster popularity, why keep out games like the Round 1 Circle mirror between Trolls from Felix’s Basement & Malcontents where Una2 beat Krueger2. Krueger2 wasn’t dropped 7 times, he was dropped 8 times and only had a 37.5% win rate. Like, I get not wanting to include caster mirror matches in the caster win rate, but faction mirrors that aren’t caster mirrors should probably be included in the caster win rate, & even caster mirrors should be included in Times Dropped. These numbers are inaccurate as a result. It's because mirror matches move the results towards a 50/50 skew. Caster mirrors might, but faction mirrors don’t. Sure if we were talking about Krueger2 vs Krueger2 games or Sorscha1 vs Sorscha1 games I understand why those mirrors aren’t included when calculating caster statistics, but when you’re creating lists that judge casters on the basis of their individual performance it makes no sense to leave out games against other casters just because they happen to be in the same faction.
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Post by welshhoppo on Jan 20, 2018 12:37:21 GMT
While that's true, people are not generally interested in that regard.
Like for example, say Grymkin won 60 per cent of their games, it doesn't seem like there's a problem with the faction.
But then you find out that over half of the Grym matches were against each other. Which means that it's forced the results way way down. And the actual result is close to 90 against other factions and the only way to easily defeat Grymkin is to play Grymkin into them.
It helps people fight problem factions, I don't want my answer to fighting Grymkin to be "start collecting Grymkim"
*Grymkin only used as an example.
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Post by jonnyboy on Jan 20, 2018 14:54:33 GMT
While that's true, people are not generally interested in that regard. Like for example, say Grymkin won 60 per cent of their games, it doesn't seem like there's a problem with the faction. But then you find out that over half of the Grym matches were against each other. Which means that it's forced the results way way down. And the actual result is close to 90 against other factions and the only way to easily defeat Grymkin is to play Grymkin into them. It helps people fight problem factions, I don't want my answer to fighting Grymkin to be "start collecting Grymkim" *Grymkin only used as an example. Im not sure the math works that way though. If you play 10 games, win 6, you've won 60% of your games. If 3 of those are your own faction, you don't go up to 90%, you go down to 42%. If anything, playing and winning against your own faction pads the results is a positive way. Edit: I guess that is unless the 4 games you lost were also vs the same faction.
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Post by welshhoppo on Jan 20, 2018 20:59:19 GMT
It was all theoretical maths.
I made it up at a bus stop. It wasn't supposed to be accurate.
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Deller
Junior Strategist
I’m on a Boat
Posts: 605
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Post by Deller on Jan 21, 2018 1:55:36 GMT
While that's true, people are not generally interested in that regard. Like for example, say Grymkin won 60 per cent of their games, it doesn't seem like there's a problem with the faction. But then you find out that over half of the Grym matches were against each other. Which means that it's forced the results way way down. And the actual result is close to 90 against other factions and the only way to easily defeat Grymkin is to play Grymkin into them. It helps people fight problem factions, I don't want my answer to fighting Grymkin to be "start collecting Grymkim" *Grymkin only used as an example. Right and I agree, when you're looking at faction win rates adjusting for the mirror is important. But we're not looking at faction win rates, we're looking at Caster win rates. Take your example though. Let's say we focus on The Dreamer. Let's say based on cutting out all mirror matches you find out dreamer won 80% of her games (4/5) & you conclude Dreamer is slightly unpopular but strong. Once you include the mirror you find out the Dreamer was played 5 times and lost every one of those games to Child & Heritic. Making her actually the most played Grymkin warlock of the day with a 40% win rate against nonDreamer mirrors. Very different picture.
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skormedlover87
Junior Strategist
Desperately searching for days off to game...
Posts: 517
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Post by skormedlover87 on Jan 21, 2018 2:07:55 GMT
I'm more of an audio guy, can you describe the results in song?
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Post by welshhoppo on Jan 21, 2018 9:15:55 GMT
I'm more of an audio guy, can you describe the results in song? sure. To the tune of twinkle twinkle little star. This year at the ATC, Something really bothered me. Cryx and Grymkin still the best, Don't bother playing the rest.
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Haight
Junior Strategist
Posts: 396
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Post by Haight on Jan 21, 2018 18:21:49 GMT
I'm more of an audio guy, can you describe the results in song? sure. To the tune of twinkle twinkle little star. This year at the ATC, Something really bothered me. Cryx and Grymkin still the best, Don't bother playing the rest. While i'm not sure i agree with the sentiments, that's pretty hilarious.
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