isotope
Junior Strategist
Posts: 634
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Post by isotope on May 12, 2017 17:09:04 GMT
Umm.. 80% of competitive lists being theme is today. I haven't done the math tbh, but it sure feels like it. Turns out free points is better than not free points in a game balanced around point values. I haven't played much mk3 yet to to havingnto faction hop and my vow to play mk3 painted but i play our of theme and im 6/1... My one loss was to double TEP axis list in a SR where i only had one list that was all melee and the table funnelled me into a clump for TEPs to spray down 18 ARM 25 sentinels and then axis feated. I've had no issue taking on theme lists with my out of theme single list. I look forward to having my second list fully painted so i can have a proper pairing. That list isnt theme either and im not concerned at all.
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Post by pangurban on May 12, 2017 18:01:16 GMT
Umm.. 80% of competitive lists being theme is today. I haven't done the math tbh, but it sure feels like it. Turns out free points is better than not free points in a game balanced around point values. I haven't played much mk3 yet to to havingnto faction hop and my vow to play mk3 painted but i play our of theme and im 6/1... My one loss was to double TEP axis list in a SR where i only had one list that was all melee and the table funnelled me into a clump for TEPs to spray down 18 ARM 25 sentinels and then axis feated. I've had no issue taking on theme lists with my out of theme single list. I look forward to having my second list fully painted so i can have a proper pairing. That list isnt theme either and im not concerned at all. I want to test just how good Advance Move is on Houseguard Halberdiers (and the confusion regarding the free CAs and solos needs to be cleared up) before passing final judgment, but Ret's themes seem pretty balanced against not going in theme. In Khador or Cygnar for instance going themed feels markedly stronger than not, and themes like Ghost Fleet or Oracles of Annihilation are pretty much no brainers for their respective factions. If you're looking at this purely from the perspective of a Retribution player you're not getting the big picture. I'm not entirely happy with this evolution myself, but it is what it is.
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isotope
Junior Strategist
Posts: 634
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Post by isotope on May 12, 2017 18:19:41 GMT
I haven't played much mk3 yet to to havingnto faction hop and my vow to play mk3 painted but i play our of theme and im 6/1... My one loss was to double TEP axis list in a SR where i only had one list that was all melee and the table funnelled me into a clump for TEPs to spray down 18 ARM 25 sentinels and then axis feated. I've had no issue taking on theme lists with my out of theme single list. I look forward to having my second list fully painted so i can have a proper pairing. That list isnt theme either and im not concerned at all. I want to test just how good Advance Move is on Houseguard Halberdiers (and the confusion regarding the free CAs and solos needs to be cleared up) before passing final judgment, but Ret's themes seem pretty balanced against not going in theme. In Khador or Cygnar for instance going themed feels markedly stronger than not, and themes like Ghost Fleet or Oracles of Annihilation are pretty much no brainers for their respective factions. If you're looking at this purely from the perspective of a Retribution player you're not getting the big picture. I'm not entirely happy with this evolution myself, but it is what it is. I also play mercs ( neither list theme) and I used to play Cygnar. I'm aware of the advantages of themes. I believe skill also has a factor. Obviously if 2 players of equal skill play on a balanced table and play without mistakes the theme will most likely win. I also never discount the models that themes do not allow, sometimes those are crucial to list building.
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marke
Junior Strategist
Posts: 187
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Post by marke on May 12, 2017 18:27:12 GMT
Thanks for sharing, but personal experiences make these discussions very hard. We're trying to (I hope) to establish some kind of theoretical baseline here, not how each player has succeeded or not. I know it's impossible to be that unbiased, but it's good to try.
Some individual players winning constantly a lot out-of-theme doesn't say one thing or the other about the power of themes actually. The math is pretty simple, and isn't affected by individual experiences.
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isotope
Junior Strategist
Posts: 634
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Post by isotope on May 12, 2017 18:56:41 GMT
Thanks for sharing, but personal experiences make these discussions very hard. We're trying to (I hope) to establish some kind of theoretical baseline here, not how each player has succeeded or not. I know it's impossible to be that unbiased, but it's good to try. Some individual players winning constantly a lot out-of-theme doesn't say one thing or the other about the power of themes actually. The math is pretty simple, and isn't affected by individual experiences. "You're opinion doesn't matter" Got it.
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Post by elladan52 on May 12, 2017 20:05:05 GMT
The math is pretty simple, and isn't affected by individual experiences. It really isn't that simple. More points does not directly translate into an advantage. Just look at some of the mk2 themes.
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Post by pangurban on May 12, 2017 21:32:13 GMT
The math is pretty simple, and isn't affected by individual experiences. It really isn't that simple. More points does not directly translate into an advantage. Just look at some of the mk2 themes. Just look at the Mk III themes nobody takes, if we're keeping it simple and comparable. More points does translate to an advantage, but what these points get you and what you have to give up for them makes all the difference.
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Post by pangurban on May 12, 2017 21:35:25 GMT
Thanks for sharing, but personal experiences make these discussions very hard. We're trying to (I hope) to establish some kind of theoretical baseline here, not how each player has succeeded or not. I know it's impossible to be that unbiased, but it's good to try. Some individual players winning constantly a lot out-of-theme doesn't say one thing or the other about the power of themes actually. The math is pretty simple, and isn't affected by individual experiences. "You're opinion doesn't matter" Got it. He didn't sound condescending to me. You're nudging the line though, no offense. That said, I'm not seeing this theoretical baseline either. Seems a bit too complex for that as well.
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isotope
Junior Strategist
Posts: 634
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Post by isotope on May 12, 2017 22:04:54 GMT
I personally think that Ghost Fleet is the anti-Theme Theme. Since most Theme forces restrict access to magical weapons and answers to stealth any list with a lot of stealth and more importantly incorporeal will have an advantage. Turn that into Incorporeal spam with recursion and you're in trouble. Personally with my Caine3 list A+H magic weapon the Idrians and Objective Magic Weapons the Galleon and I kill 2 units a turn. With Ret it's not so easy but they have to come out of incorp to attack my sentinels who are a tough nut to crack.
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Post by elladan52 on May 13, 2017 3:33:46 GMT
I personally think that Ghost Fleet is the anti-Theme Theme. Since most Theme forces restrict access to magical weapons and answers to stealth any list with a lot of stealth and more importantly incorporeal will have an advantage. Turn that into Incorporeal spam with recursion and you're in trouble. Personally with my Caine3 list A+H magic weapon the Idrians and Objective Magic Weapons the Galleon and I kill 2 units a turn. With Ret it's not so easy but they have to come out of incorp to attack my sentinels who are a tough nut to crack. I feel like ret is actually the hard counter to it now, with most of the jacks having magical weapons and a theme that rfps all over the place.
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Cyel
Junior Strategist
Posts: 685
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Post by Cyel on May 13, 2017 10:45:21 GMT
Thanks for sharing, but personal experiences make these discussions very hard. We're trying to (I hope) to establish some kind of theoretical baseline here, not how each player has succeeded or not. I know it's impossible to be that unbiased, but it's good to try. Some individual players winning constantly a lot out-of-theme doesn't say one thing or the other about the power of themes actually. The math is pretty simple, and isn't affected by individual experiences. I think exactly the opposite. Why should I care about theoretical baselines if my own experience is what it is ? It's like insisting that people walking their dogs and their animals themselves statistically have 3 legs each so some steps should be made to make walks for 3-legged creatures easier.
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marke
Junior Strategist
Posts: 187
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Post by marke on May 14, 2017 2:45:20 GMT
Thanks for sharing, but personal experiences make these discussions very hard. We're trying to (I hope) to establish some kind of theoretical baseline here, not how each player has succeeded or not. I know it's impossible to be that unbiased, but it's good to try. Some individual players winning constantly a lot out-of-theme doesn't say one thing or the other about the power of themes actually. The math is pretty simple, and isn't affected by individual experiences. I think exactly the opposite. Why should I care about theoretical baselines if my own experience is what it is ? It's like insisting that people walking their dogs and their animals themselves statistically have 3 legs each so some steps should be made to make walks for 3-legged creatures easier. Indeed. Driving drunk feels totally safer so alcohol must make me a better driver!
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Tucker
Junior Strategist
Posts: 103
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Post by Tucker on May 14, 2017 3:10:00 GMT
Let me be a complete partisan for my two factions (Retribution and Mercenaries) that were repped in the final rounds: nothing too groundbreaking from either player's armies, but the Retribution player has some very tight lists. I'm not sure I like Vyros2 in theme, but if you're planning on taking all battlegroup with him then why not? A couple random free points is fine. That Kaelyssa army is interesting - I would think that taking two melee or two ranged units is better than taking one of each, but maybe there's some strategery at play. The Mercenary list were also pretty 'standard' from what I'm seeing online, but I'm interested in how the Cutthroats performed in Kingmaker. I find they work best in ranged-heavy armies but maybe there's some secret sauce to getting them to work in a mass melee horde. I don't play Dwarves so I can't comment with too much authority on the other armies, but they look good. The Lesser Warlock Menagerie is a fun army that I'd like to play, but that list looks like it's about 10 points over. Maybe a typo?
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Cyel
Junior Strategist
Posts: 685
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Post by Cyel on May 14, 2017 8:30:30 GMT
Indeed. Driving drunk feels totally safer so alcohol must make me a better driver! I rather see such arguments as trying to convince a person who has just won a lottery that winning a lottery is statistically impossible and so playing it makes no sense.
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unded
Junior Strategist
Posts: 760
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Post by unded on May 15, 2017 7:19:43 GMT
I think what you're missing, marke, is that in order to have a true baseline you need to quantify all the relevant variables. While it's easy to quantify the free points, it's very difficult to quantify the opportunity cost of the themes' restrictions, or the value of the themes' fringe benefits. How many points would you say I'm losing in giving up the ability to strider deathstalkers in Oracles of Annihilation? Is that the same value as the loss of Sentry stones in the Wild Hunt? Are those losses the same for each caster ? (clearly not, we all know how caster-model synergies work).
The baseline just falls apart unless you include all the relevant variables.
-und_ed
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