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Post by gobber on Aug 19, 2018 3:29:15 GMT
i'm hoping that Circle goes to 3 competitive themes, but the fact that makes me deeply worried is Call of the Wild doesn't have the scenario pieces it needs to thrive in 2018. So honestly i think circle will only have 2 competitive themes Once lliving beasts get buffed in tharn cid and pig infantry gets tuned up in a thornfall CID, there’s much less stopping secret masters from getting fixed
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Post by oncomingstorm on Aug 19, 2018 3:32:22 GMT
DGI does not tell you how often a list was played, or what it was played against
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Post by elshinare on Aug 19, 2018 5:20:31 GMT
So back on topics of CiD, hopefully, future CiDs don't get pushed back as often as Circle's Tharn CiD. Given they said after Lock'n Load, then after GenCon, and now who knows, as well as it is based off of model production schedules, Circle may not have to proxy models by the time we hit CiD because they are supposedly an October release if I remember correctly.
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Post by Charistoph on Aug 19, 2018 7:37:30 GMT
Could be worse, we have absolutely no idea when the Talion CID is going to happen. It was preempted by the Steelhead CID, so it may not happen till after the Protectorate gets another CID.
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zich
Junior Strategist
Posts: 690
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Post by zich on Aug 19, 2018 12:37:16 GMT
I get that DGI is probably the single best source we have for top finishing lists. I still wish people would stop citing it. It covers only an incredibly narrow set of events and only a very small part of those. It also doesn't provide any data aside from raw list pairs.
There is no good source on what the real "top dog" is at any given point in time. And I am fine with that. It means you have to actually go out yourself and play. You can ask good players for their opinions, but they also only hold a small part of the truth and might even be wrong themselves sometimes.
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Post by jisidro on Aug 19, 2018 13:43:47 GMT
It's mind boggling that people think that results from dozens of high end events mean nothing... Ofc it's not a gospel, Ofc there are other good lists, Ofc players matter and ofc it provides a good snapshot into the current meta.
I'd like like it if DGI had X-1 results instead of top 3. Larger tournaments have 3-5 X-1 and that would be a good increase in available information.
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Post by gobber on Aug 19, 2018 16:16:31 GMT
Could be worse, we have absolutely no idea when the Talion CID is going to happen. It was preempted by the Steelhead CID, so it may not happen till after the Protectorate gets another CID. Talion’s off the schedule entirely. No promises it ever happens, though whatever models were in the pipeline will eventually show up somewhere (possibly this year as our Christmas replacement, but not promises there either). The steelhead artillery was supposed to launch at the beginning of mk3 so it could be a while.
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Post by oncomingstorm on Aug 19, 2018 17:15:03 GMT
It's mind boggling that people think that results from dozens of high end events mean nothing... Ofc it's not a gospel, Ofc there are other good lists, Ofc players matter and ofc it provides a good snapshot into the current meta. I'd like like it if DGI had X-1 results instead of top 3. Larger tournaments have 3-5 X-1 and that would be a good increase in available information. Results matter. But you have to be careful in what you extrapolate from what those results. Sometimes (often?) people include lists in their pairings for the express purpose of scaring people into favorable matchups for their main list. Sometimes people just...run bad lists, but don't end up playing them (I just listened to a podcast extolling the virtues of a list which was part of a con-winning pairing...which I know for a fact was never actually played in the event). Sometimes you end up getting paired against players whose lists don't fall into the subset of the meta you want to play into with one of your lists. The fact that a theme is over-represented in top-performing tournament results tells you two things. First, it tells you that the theme meets the threshold of 'powerful enough for competitive play'. and second, that the theme offers something over it's competitors that makes it desirable in a competitive pairing. That might mean that the theme is actually more powerful than it's competitors, but it could also just mean that it makes a particularly good pair for another top list. From talking to a number of strong Cryx players, that's what's going on with the over-representation of BI - it's a strong pair to the standard Cryx lists, which tend to be infantry focused, because it's nearly immune to shooting, is low model count, and offers the kind of Arm/Box skew that other Cryx lists typically can't. A Scourge, Ghost Fleet, or Slaughter fleet list LOVES to see the kind of list that can play into BI, because high value, low count attacks are wasted into lists that run 40+ infantry.
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Post by mcdermott on Aug 19, 2018 20:50:27 GMT
It's mind boggling that people think that results from dozens of high end events mean nothing... Ofc it's not a gospel, Ofc there are other good lists, Ofc players matter and ofc it provides a good snapshot into the current meta. I'd like like it if DGI had X-1 results instead of top 3. Larger tournaments have 3-5 X-1 and that would be a good increase in available information. It doesn't fit a happy narrative of "all their themes are competitive" if you acknowledge that one overpowering theme can carry a second list to a victory when that list wouldn't be strong enough to contribute meaningfully if the first list wasn't so strong.
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Post by Charistoph on Aug 19, 2018 21:47:37 GMT
Could be worse, we have absolutely no idea when the Talion CID is going to happen. It was preempted by the Steelhead CID, so it may not happen till after the Protectorate gets another CID. Talion’s off the schedule entirely. No promises it ever happens, though whatever models were in the pipeline will eventually show up somewhere (possibly this year as our Christmas replacement, but not promises there either). The steelhead artillery was supposed to launch at the beginning of mk3 so it could be a while. Yeah, that's why we don't know when it's going to happen. If Talion was on the schedule, we would have some idea as to when it is going to happen.
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Post by macdaddy on Aug 19, 2018 23:16:01 GMT
It's mind boggling that people think that results from dozens of high end events mean nothing... Ofc it's not a gospel, Ofc there are other good lists, Ofc players matter and ofc it provides a good snapshot into the current meta. I'd like like it if DGI had X-1 results instead of top 3. Larger tournaments have 3-5 X-1 and that would be a good increase in available information. It doesn't fit a happy narrative of "all their themes are competitive" if you acknowledge that one overpowering theme can carry a second list to a victory when that list wouldn't be strong enough to contribute meaningfully if the first list wasn't so strong. This is a bit...odd.... Nothing in the data proves that the second lists are not strong on their own and making the assertion that the faction in question would be bad without the over the top option just feels like an unsubstantiated claim in most cases. Warmachine has a great number of themes, all factions have at least one terrible theme but at least 2 or 3 solid themes.
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Post by mcdermott on Aug 20, 2018 5:42:33 GMT
There is a big difference between 'bad' and 'does not cover enough bases to be 1/2 a tourney pair without a really powerful other list to force the opponent into a list this particular list is strong against'.
I submit that a not insignificant number of those competitive themes only work because Gravediggers/BI cover enough extra bases for them to cover their 1 or maybe 2.
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zich
Junior Strategist
Posts: 690
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Post by zich on Aug 20, 2018 6:46:54 GMT
It's mind boggling that people think that results from dozens of high end events mean nothing. I will have to admit that since the Conflict Chamber integration, the data set has increased massively in size and is thus more useful. It still bears keeping in mind that:
1) It's still mostly about the American meta, which is notoriously homogenous when it comes to lists. 2) Top3 is such a small segment of a tournament. It might even exclude a player who lost the finals.
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Post by mcdermott on Aug 20, 2018 20:33:23 GMT
I mean, that's true, but i what i'm seeing is a lot of claims without even half bothering some extrapolation from the "it doesn't mean anything" side, and a WHOLE lot of "doesn't place if it isn't using BI or GD and in instances where a second member of that faction is playing without one of those two lists the one with BI or GD places higher" supported by actual results.
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skormedlover87
Junior Strategist
Desperately searching for days off to game...
Posts: 517
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Post by skormedlover87 on Aug 20, 2018 23:13:53 GMT
Can the ongoing fight that has nothing to do with the theme of this thread please make it's own thread? Please? I'm tired of the bickering that's obviously going absolutely no place and it has nothing to do future CiD's at this point, and hasn't for a long time.
Please???
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