Winning list selection and avoiding List Chicken
Apr 11, 2017 9:23:05 GMT
Big Fat Troll, mattmcd, and 1 more like this
Post by Trollock on Apr 11, 2017 9:23:05 GMT
This article runs the risk of becoming too long and rambling, but ill do my bets to kep it in check. I have a clear concept in my head that I want to share with you guys that can help you in list selection in a two list environment. It becomes less useful in a three list environment but it can still give you some aid.
Problems and Solutions
A list usually presents some problems for the opponent to try and overcome. A list usually has solutions to some problems that the opponent presents. It is not uncommon for your two lists to present different problems AND have different solutions. If both players have such a setup, you usually end up in "List Chicken". If you bring two lists to an event, you ideally want to be able to solve all problems between the two lists, but no one list can handle all problems. Hence, if you do not know what list your opponent will play, and he has lists that present two very different problems, you may simply end up dropping the "wrong" list. There is a method to reduce the risk of this happening though...
List Chicken
First let me clarify what List Chicken is. We call your two lists A and B. The opponent has lists C and D. If there is a situation where you win A vs C and B vs D but lose B vs C and A vs D, then neither player knows what list will be best to drop. You both have to take a chance, drop basically at random and you may end up in a really good or really bad match up. When i say "win" and "lose" here i of course mean that you are advantaged or disadvantaged. You can win a disadvantaged match up, but it is way harder. List chicken is something you want to avoid, especially if you think you are the better player, but unless you have a strong sense for what list your opponent will drop it may be really hard to do.
Gaining the Information Advantage
So, if you know what list your opponent will play, you just drop the one of your two lists that is best against that one, right? Some times, one of your opponent's lists is bad against both your lists, and thus you can be confident that he will drop his other list. This article will try and explain how you force that situation to arise.
This method works well at the mid levels of play. It can work well against high level players, but they may see through your scheme too often. Low level players may not identify that both their lists are bad against your lists and may therefore drop the "wrong" list which just happened to be the right list
As I said, most players will design their list so that one list is markedly better at handling Armor and the other is better at handling something else. Previously, that "something else" was infantry, but they are not as common as before, so the other list may be designed to handle shooting instead. Since ARM and box skews are so common, many pairings will have two lists that handle ARM, but usually one will be better at it.
The trick here is that if you have two lists that both present the same "problem" to the opponent, you "know" that they will drop the list that is best at handling that problem. Then you can drop the one of your two lists that has the best match up against that list. That is about all of it. Sounds obvious, but many list pairing are not built in this way at all, and even though you can still "win" list selection, it can require more skill on your part, and you may not have that skill.
Historical Evidence
I started using this way of pairing lists back in MK 2 when the Meat Mountain builds had their golden age. I built two lists with Double Warders, some Champions and some heavies, but one of them was meant to fight against infantry, and the other was meant to fight against heavies. Back then, Grissel 1 has a GLORIOUS feat and fell calls, that meant that your Warders easily won fights against Banes and the like, even though weapon master infantry was "meant to be" a counter to high ARM. At the same time, Warders under Grissel 2 were so hard to kill that lists with multiple heavies simply could not trade effectively against it. So, a pairing i played was Grissel 1 and 2, with MMM builds, and it served me very well. I "always" knew what list my opponent would drop, and then i could drop Grilles 1 if they were going to try and play infantry and Grissel 2 if they were going to play heavies.
Present day possibilities
Right now, the Power of Dhunia (PoD) theme force is very strong. It is not at all impossible to build two PoD lists and still cover most of what the opponent can bring. Almost any PoD list with have lots of beasts with lots of ARM and boxes. Your opponent will have to respect that there might be 5 ARM 20 heavies across the table, and bringing his list with all of the POW 10 shooting will not be a good idea. He must drop his "can opener"-list. What that list contains may vary, but you can often identify it pretty easily. Now you just have to make sure that your two lists have the solutions to any problem he might bring and you are good to go.
If you for example play Doomy 2 with a lot of heavies. You know that if they drop a list that is based on melee heavies, you will most likely out threaten it AND punch hard enough to neuter it on the first try. Then you have 5 high ARM heavies, and they have fewer than 5 left (usually). You can grind the list down over time and win. They might have a list that is all weapon master infantry instead, and that is not at all as fun for your 5 heavies to fight. Therefore your other list should be able to handle weapon master infantry, but still do it by bringing enough high ARM stuff to force them to drop the "can opener". For example Grissel 2 could knock down the infantry at range, or send in a Bouncer with Wailing to prevent them from charging. The rest of the list could still be heavies like Bomber and Maulers or a King. Perhaps you bring a unit of Runeshapers along just to have some extra cheap blast damage, or one of the bombers gets replaced by two Pyre Trolls to light infantry on fire if they happened to be resistant to blast damage.
Another more uncommon example could be that you play two infantry swarms. Madrak 2 with lots of weapon master infantry will chew through the opponents jacks very well and it will kill melee infantry easily enough, but it does not like a list with lots of rifle corps. If you paired that with something like Gunnbjorn with double Fennblades, that list is way stronger against the shooting of the rifle corps. You could then force him to not play his POW 10 shooting because it would have no effect at all on Gunnbjorn. I think this version is not as good, simply because Gunnbjorn would not want to play against 7 heavies with his infantry swarm, but the possibilities are there if you are creative.
This is just one example, but the idea is simply to bring two lists that presents the same problem (it does not have to be ARM skew, it could be other problems) but that is strong against different things.
Parting Words
This is a fun exercise you can do with your gaming pals. Bring two lists and do list selection. If you can get match ups that you are happy with, that will usually improve your results. You can also go to sites like discountgamesinc.com and see tournament pairings. Take some tournament pairings and pretend you are doing list selection against that pairing. Is there an obvious list for them to drop? Often there will be. In this example you should probably pretend that the pairing is piloted by one of your local gaming buddies though. I am sure Tom Guam would kick my ass even if I had an advantaged match up against him
You often hear people discuss their pairing in terms of "what do you drop against caster X?" This is flawed logic in my opinion, since they have TWO casters, and even if you have one list that is great against caster X, it might be horrible against caster Y who just happened to be their second list. This method allows you to make a more educated guess on what list your opponent will drop against you, and then you can adapt to that. It works way more often than you think it should. At worst, you are still in a List Chicken scenario, but then you at least have a 50/50 chance of doing the right thing, and that can happen no matter what pairing you bring. Try it out, and see how you like it
Thanks for reading
/T
Problems and Solutions
A list usually presents some problems for the opponent to try and overcome. A list usually has solutions to some problems that the opponent presents. It is not uncommon for your two lists to present different problems AND have different solutions. If both players have such a setup, you usually end up in "List Chicken". If you bring two lists to an event, you ideally want to be able to solve all problems between the two lists, but no one list can handle all problems. Hence, if you do not know what list your opponent will play, and he has lists that present two very different problems, you may simply end up dropping the "wrong" list. There is a method to reduce the risk of this happening though...
List Chicken
First let me clarify what List Chicken is. We call your two lists A and B. The opponent has lists C and D. If there is a situation where you win A vs C and B vs D but lose B vs C and A vs D, then neither player knows what list will be best to drop. You both have to take a chance, drop basically at random and you may end up in a really good or really bad match up. When i say "win" and "lose" here i of course mean that you are advantaged or disadvantaged. You can win a disadvantaged match up, but it is way harder. List chicken is something you want to avoid, especially if you think you are the better player, but unless you have a strong sense for what list your opponent will drop it may be really hard to do.
Gaining the Information Advantage
So, if you know what list your opponent will play, you just drop the one of your two lists that is best against that one, right? Some times, one of your opponent's lists is bad against both your lists, and thus you can be confident that he will drop his other list. This article will try and explain how you force that situation to arise.
This method works well at the mid levels of play. It can work well against high level players, but they may see through your scheme too often. Low level players may not identify that both their lists are bad against your lists and may therefore drop the "wrong" list which just happened to be the right list
As I said, most players will design their list so that one list is markedly better at handling Armor and the other is better at handling something else. Previously, that "something else" was infantry, but they are not as common as before, so the other list may be designed to handle shooting instead. Since ARM and box skews are so common, many pairings will have two lists that handle ARM, but usually one will be better at it.
The trick here is that if you have two lists that both present the same "problem" to the opponent, you "know" that they will drop the list that is best at handling that problem. Then you can drop the one of your two lists that has the best match up against that list. That is about all of it. Sounds obvious, but many list pairing are not built in this way at all, and even though you can still "win" list selection, it can require more skill on your part, and you may not have that skill.
Historical Evidence
I started using this way of pairing lists back in MK 2 when the Meat Mountain builds had their golden age. I built two lists with Double Warders, some Champions and some heavies, but one of them was meant to fight against infantry, and the other was meant to fight against heavies. Back then, Grissel 1 has a GLORIOUS feat and fell calls, that meant that your Warders easily won fights against Banes and the like, even though weapon master infantry was "meant to be" a counter to high ARM. At the same time, Warders under Grissel 2 were so hard to kill that lists with multiple heavies simply could not trade effectively against it. So, a pairing i played was Grissel 1 and 2, with MMM builds, and it served me very well. I "always" knew what list my opponent would drop, and then i could drop Grilles 1 if they were going to try and play infantry and Grissel 2 if they were going to play heavies.
Present day possibilities
Right now, the Power of Dhunia (PoD) theme force is very strong. It is not at all impossible to build two PoD lists and still cover most of what the opponent can bring. Almost any PoD list with have lots of beasts with lots of ARM and boxes. Your opponent will have to respect that there might be 5 ARM 20 heavies across the table, and bringing his list with all of the POW 10 shooting will not be a good idea. He must drop his "can opener"-list. What that list contains may vary, but you can often identify it pretty easily. Now you just have to make sure that your two lists have the solutions to any problem he might bring and you are good to go.
If you for example play Doomy 2 with a lot of heavies. You know that if they drop a list that is based on melee heavies, you will most likely out threaten it AND punch hard enough to neuter it on the first try. Then you have 5 high ARM heavies, and they have fewer than 5 left (usually). You can grind the list down over time and win. They might have a list that is all weapon master infantry instead, and that is not at all as fun for your 5 heavies to fight. Therefore your other list should be able to handle weapon master infantry, but still do it by bringing enough high ARM stuff to force them to drop the "can opener". For example Grissel 2 could knock down the infantry at range, or send in a Bouncer with Wailing to prevent them from charging. The rest of the list could still be heavies like Bomber and Maulers or a King. Perhaps you bring a unit of Runeshapers along just to have some extra cheap blast damage, or one of the bombers gets replaced by two Pyre Trolls to light infantry on fire if they happened to be resistant to blast damage.
Another more uncommon example could be that you play two infantry swarms. Madrak 2 with lots of weapon master infantry will chew through the opponents jacks very well and it will kill melee infantry easily enough, but it does not like a list with lots of rifle corps. If you paired that with something like Gunnbjorn with double Fennblades, that list is way stronger against the shooting of the rifle corps. You could then force him to not play his POW 10 shooting because it would have no effect at all on Gunnbjorn. I think this version is not as good, simply because Gunnbjorn would not want to play against 7 heavies with his infantry swarm, but the possibilities are there if you are creative.
This is just one example, but the idea is simply to bring two lists that presents the same problem (it does not have to be ARM skew, it could be other problems) but that is strong against different things.
Parting Words
This is a fun exercise you can do with your gaming pals. Bring two lists and do list selection. If you can get match ups that you are happy with, that will usually improve your results. You can also go to sites like discountgamesinc.com and see tournament pairings. Take some tournament pairings and pretend you are doing list selection against that pairing. Is there an obvious list for them to drop? Often there will be. In this example you should probably pretend that the pairing is piloted by one of your local gaming buddies though. I am sure Tom Guam would kick my ass even if I had an advantaged match up against him
You often hear people discuss their pairing in terms of "what do you drop against caster X?" This is flawed logic in my opinion, since they have TWO casters, and even if you have one list that is great against caster X, it might be horrible against caster Y who just happened to be their second list. This method allows you to make a more educated guess on what list your opponent will drop against you, and then you can adapt to that. It works way more often than you think it should. At worst, you are still in a List Chicken scenario, but then you at least have a 50/50 chance of doing the right thing, and that can happen no matter what pairing you bring. Try it out, and see how you like it
Thanks for reading
/T
