some numbers about the production costs.
here in austria a steel mold for hard plastic injection casting with a size of 136x136x190 inch costs ~60k $ (= 50k € fixed price) and has a
precision of +/- 0,00020 inch ( 0.005mm )
it doesn´t matter how many parts are in the mold. it doesn´t matter how detailed the parts are in the mold. you have to pay 60k$ for the production of the mold thats it.
keep in mind that austria is one of the most expensive countries because of the very high labour costs.
one mold lasts for multiple tens of thousands casting cycles.
now lets add 6k $ ( =5k €) for artworks, sculping/3D designing, 3D prototype printing, studio painter, photography etc.
costs for the cast material (hard plastic Hydra etc.) are negligible.
so we have 66k $ investment cost /165$ costs per unit = 400 units
after ~ 400 units the production runs at pure profit.
That is very interesting. While you captured the design and tooling costs, you forgot a couple of costs, though:
Machine Time (you have a mold, now someone has to load and unload the mold from the press, run the press, etc.)
Material (the cost of material is very low, but not negligible - don't forget test / warm-up pieces)
Financing (I doubt Privateer Press has $66,000 sitting around doing nothing, they need to borrow it)
Packaging (you have to have a box and inserts to send the Hooch Hauler to the customer)
Labor (The Hooch Hauler does not magically end up in the box or prepared for shipping)
Transport (PP would not be doing the molding, so it has to get from the press shop to PP, and from PP to the customer)
And then there is one other thing we should discuss: Do you think PP will actually sell 400+ kits in a short period of time?
Miniature wargaming is a hobby with some popularity, but we are still a small niche hobby.
Warmachine and Hordes are popular games, but it is still only a portion of the wargaming hobby.
Trolls is only 1 out of 13 factions (16 factions if you split the Mercs and Minions up)
Storm of the North is 1 of 4 Troll themes, and the Hooch Hauler is very geared towards this theme
So, if you have a wargamer who plays Warmahordes, that actually plays Trolls, and has decided to put together a Storm of the North theme army, he might buy a Hooch Hauler - if he can afford the $165 (or more for outside of the USA.)
I understand the point you are trying to make, but I think you
- over-estimate the volume of sales that the Hooch hauler will have
- over-estimate Privateer Press' ability to handle a loss or wait for a return on investment
- greatly under-estimate the side costs
- under-estimate PP's desired profit margin for selling this stuff direct.