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Post by michael on Mar 5, 2019 22:42:03 GMT
... The only thing i can see is new games ala riotquest or warmachine 4 ed being so good and in high demand that the store owner just have to commit to ordering more than the minimum. ... I wouldn’t hold your breath for “4th edition” just yet. Despite the Internet echo chamber and perpetual doom cycle, this edition is actually pretty great and the rules set is incredibly solid.
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Ganso
Junior Strategist
Posts: 932
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Post by Ganso on Mar 6, 2019 2:42:52 GMT
... The only thing i can see is new games ala riotquest or warmachine 4 ed being so good and in high demand that the store owner just have to commit to ordering more than the minimum. ... I wouldn’t hold your breath for “4th edition” just yet. Despite the Internet echo chamber and perpetual doom cycle, this edition is actually pretty great and the rules set is incredibly solid. All they literally have to do in a Mk4 is to decide which legacy models get cut, which get repackaged into new manageable bundles, and which get new resculpts. Core gameplay and current rules on the models who avoid getting axed can stay as is.
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Post by challenger on Mar 6, 2019 4:05:53 GMT
I remember how often people would use that list to crow about how Warmachine held the #3 spot despite not being merged with Hordes. Now all of a sudden that neither Warmachine or Hordes is listed here i predict that many people on various platforms will suddenly find reasons not to care about the list. At least you could respect someone if they consistently valued the list instead of valuing it when its convenient.
But i think with:
-The mk3 disaster launch (and PP staff attitude around it) -CID Codex creep (inb4 'game is healthiest its ever been' and 'its not power creep as long as not every single release is better than the last one, mr man made of straw') -That ridiculous free riders thing -Staff leaving -Other games springing up in the meantime, 40k and AoS getting back in form, viable alternatives such as Malifaux, Infinity, Guild ball, etc etc etc all coming up with twists on the format that solve some of the worst aspects of Warmachine (when was the last time a guild ball player complained about list chicken?) -Thememachine damaging list building and new player friendliness of the game. Most lists in a theme all look the same, some themes have almost no real options to choose from. Many decisions are railroaded. Newbies get burned by buying into bad or sub-par themes for their meta and then finding out the models they bought can't even be used in the 'good' lists
Is it any surprise to find warmachine slipping off rankings? I know most hardcore fans will dismiss what i say completely with "DOOOOM" memes, but denial of the clear signs of decline isn't going to change the reality of it either.
(i expect at least one person to jump at a chance to tell me how their lone individual meta has grown, which must be a clear sign of overall game health)
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Post by Charistoph on Mar 6, 2019 4:27:20 GMT
I think also the fact that list progression has become a bit disjointed of late, and soooo much relies on stuff people already have enough of, or just the one or two new kits, that Mk 2 Factions became far less sellable over all. That has happened at my LGS, where they've literally shrunken the WMH wall by half in the last year largely because the players either get their big lists second hand or from discount sites, limiting what they need to keep on hand to a minimal level. They can still order anything I may want, but when I can get it quicker and cheaper from Amazon or just see if anyone is selling it locally, there is little impetus to make such requests short of store support.
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Post by mydnight on Mar 6, 2019 5:32:03 GMT
The core support base of warmachine is probably going strong, and they support PP by buying BAHI, the new limited factions etc. I personally think the core rules of MKIII are the best so far. However just because the game is good to a 'veteran' doesn't mean its growing at a healthy rate.
New entrants, casuals, international market, poor marketing and retail strategy etc is probably where the problem lies.
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Post by greytemplar on Mar 6, 2019 6:47:20 GMT
I agree with you michael because I saw first hand what free loaders can do to a gaming space that's struggling to begin with. Thing is, PP basically said "We're gonna make it harder for Online Stores to move our product", but they never said "We're going to make it easier for Brick and Mortar Stores to move our product". Instead they have a catalog with a 1000+ SKUs, and counting, and no way for a FLGS to comfortably pull in new players when they still need to order hard to get legacy models through some obscure method. Except every miniature game has that same problem. Very few, if any, could stock the full GW lineup even if they ditched every other miniature game to make space.
The issues FLGSs have have nothing to do with how many SKUs a particular game has. Its all about how can a FLGS keep getting revenue from both new and veteran players to stay afloat. The best FLGSs that stick around seem to have a few things in common.
You carry a reasonable selection of starter products for the games in question, as well as occasionally getting small amounts of new releases which you tailor to your local group. This gives both newbies and veterans a reason to purchase models there. You don't expect a gamer to buy their entire collection there, only the starters and occasional impulse buys of new stuff. A loyalty program is also good incentive for gamers. They'll buy stuff on occasion if it can get them some small discounts, even if its technically less than what they might get online.
One good thing for a game store to offer is snacks(rather than charge $ for gaming space). A veteran gamer might not buy very many miniatures, but he'll probably spend a few bucks on some snacks each week.
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shiver
Junior Strategist
Posts: 150
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Post by shiver on Mar 6, 2019 6:48:12 GMT
... The only thing i can see is new games ala riotquest or warmachine 4 ed being so good and in high demand that the store owner just have to commit to ordering more than the minimum. ... I wouldn’t hold your breath for “4th edition” just yet. Despite the Internet echo chamber and perpetual doom cycle, this edition is actually pretty great and the rules set is incredibly solid. Good rules don't sell a game by themselves. It takes a lot more to sell a game to a prospective buyer than the rules set. The product on a wall, an enthusiastic community, and background lore that allows the players to get immersed in the world and setting are all extremely important. Sadly, everywhere I have gone now, PP has none of these things going for it. I have seen about 17 new Vigilus campaigns starting to pop up at the stores I go to when I'm out and traveling for work, but absolutely nothing for WM/H. I remember how often people would use that list to crow about how Warmachine held the #3 spot despite not being merged with Hordes. Now all of a sudden that neither Warmachine or Hordes is listed here i predict that many people on various platforms will suddenly find reasons not to care about the list. At least you could respect someone if they consistently valued the list instead of valuing it when its convenient. But i think with: -The mk3 disaster launch (and PP staff attitude around it) -CID Codex creep (inb4 'game is healthiest its ever been' and 'its not power creep as long as not every single release is better than the last one, mr man made of straw') -That ridiculous free riders thing -Staff leaving -Other games springing up in the meantime, 40k and AoS getting back in form, viable alternatives such as Malifaux, Infinity, Guild ball, etc etc etc all coming up with twists on the format that solve some of the worst aspects of Warmachine (when was the last time a guild ball player complained about list chicken?) -Thememachine damaging list building and new player friendliness of the game. Most lists in a theme all look the same, some themes have almost no real options to choose from. Many decisions are railroaded. Newbies get burned by buying into bad or sub-par themes for their meta and then finding out the models they bought can't even be used in the 'good' lists Is it any surprise to find Warmachine slipping off rankings? I know most hardcore fans will dismiss what I say completely with "DOOOOM" memes, but denial of the clear signs of decline isn't going to change the reality of it either. (i expect at least one person to jump at a chance to tell me how their lone individual meta has grown, which must be a clear sign of overall game health) This does not bode well for WMH at all, and I think were are at the point where it's ok to talk about it and I think people can't keep just passing it off as a nothingburger. While that doesn't mean that PP is packing up tomorrow and shutting down, It does mean that WMH is definitely on a decline and not growing. I think this is pretty apparent if you're looking around and trying to be even somewhat objective. Switching WMW to WFW to accommodate more games so they can grow again is a big sign, drops in sales, reported by both ICv2 and GTM, and the impact of GW actually starting to get their shit together I think is really putting PP in a tough spot. From what I understand, MonPoc has done well, but even that now is fading and it is purported by the sources I have spoken with all Mon Poc did was take people from WMh and move them to another system, it didn't do much if anything to get people who were not already PP customers to join the game (this was from a conference call with a distributor I was fortunate to be on). If anything, this should be a call to action to PP to get those new people energized and motivated to grow the game and the company again. It won't be easy, 40k is the best that 40k has ever been, and AoS is finally starting to clear some of its growing pains (this has been the case for some time now, but people refuse to admit that truth). PP are going to have to do something to start getting people interested in growing the game again, and they are going to have to do something to help the retailers because every retailer I know on a personal basis absolutely REFUSE to carry PP stuff because of the mistrust and lack of faith in PP. The core support base of Warmachine is probably going strong, and they support PP by buying BAHI, the new limited factions etc. I personally think the core rules of MKIII are the best so far. However just because the game is good to a 'veteran' doesn't mean its growing at a healthy rate. New entrants, casuals, international market, poor marketing and retail strategy etc is probably where the problem lies. This is my guess. I think PP is going to milk mk3 for all its worth from its hard corps fan base, then when the IP has dried up (which sales stack ranks may suggest that this is beginning to happen, i mean both GTM and ICv2 are saying the same thing) MK4 will release and will hopefully re-energize the community, and if PP has at least half of a Firetrucking brain left (and I'm not betting they do at this point) they will re-launch with an all-new methodology for recruiting new players and a new marketing strategy.
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Post by greytemplar on Mar 6, 2019 6:51:33 GMT
New entrants, casuals, international market, poor marketing and retail strategy etc is probably where the problem lies. Mostly I think the problem is that PP completely burned their loyal fanbase.
Between killing the PG program, brazen denial of all problems with the Mk3 rollout, and outright hostility towards their concerned customers, they really made some bad PR choices.
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shiver
Junior Strategist
Posts: 150
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Post by shiver on Mar 6, 2019 6:57:46 GMT
New entrants, casuals, international market, poor marketing and retail strategy etc is probably where the problem lies. Mostly I think the problem is that PP completely burned their loyal fanbase.
Between killing the PG program, brazen denial of all problems with the Mk3 rollout, and outright hostility towards their concerned customers, they really made some bad PR choices.
let's not forget the modeling SNAFUs. I'm still pissed about my Hydras.
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crow
Junior Strategist
Posts: 310
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Post by crow on Mar 6, 2019 12:38:59 GMT
you know I after exploring a little bit around my area, I've discovered a few things. It's the communities around the game too that seem to effect the size of metas. For instance, being kinda vague as to not actually call out a particular group, I have learned a group near-ish me is having problems as it seems to be shrinking, and isn't taking on very many "new" people. It seems to be heavily focused in only tourney play, and from what I've heard even their casual night one must bring two lists, allow opponents to see which will be played, and then rules are followed to a "T" with no take backs such as one would find at a tournament.
My group however is still fairly active and consists of mostly new players (1 year or less of the game), and we try to focus on playing more casual funzy lists. We allow for take backs, and occasionally as a more "veteran" player, I'll occasionally do something silly to allow players the opportunity to win or learn how to do something they may not usually get to do. I also know another group near-ish me that is doing similar and they've recently had two new people join.
I will say that exposure (how many people actually see and hear about the game), and style of local gaming group are probably the two biggest factors when trying to grow this game. I myself have started considering jumping back into "grow the game" mode just to see if I can help bring even more players in, but it is a bit tricky with my limited time. As for this list, I will admit it does not seem to bode well, but that being said, I wonder if Warmachine would at least be present if both Hordes and Warmachine were added together? Any who, just my imput on the subject
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cain
Junior Strategist
Posts: 243
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Post by cain on Mar 6, 2019 13:02:04 GMT
As for this list, I will admit it does not seem to bode well, but that being said, I wonder if Warmachine would at least be present if both Hordes and Warmachine were added together? Any who, just my imput on the subject
For some strange reason warmachine and hordes have always been separate in the ICv2 statistic. But even so at least warmachine has always been on the top 5 list in the past years. Now they are gone.
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Post by michael on Mar 6, 2019 13:02:14 GMT
you know I after exploring a little bit around my area, I've discovered a few things. It's the communities around the game too that seem to effect the size of metas. For instance, being kinda vague as to not actually call out a particular group, I have learned a group near-ish me is having problems as it seems to be shrinking, and isn't taking on very many "new" people. It seems to be heavily focused in only tourney play, and from what I've heard even their casual night one must bring two lists, allow opponents to see which will be played, and then rules are followed to a "T" with no take backs such as one would find at a tournament. My group however is still fairly active and consists of mostly new players (1 year or less of the game), and we try to focus on playing more casual funzy lists. We allow for take backs, and occasionally as a more "veteran" player, I'll occasionally do something silly to allow players the opportunity to win or learn how to do something they may not usually get to do. I also know another group near-ish me that is doing similar and they've recently had two new people join. I will say that exposure (how many people actually see and hear about the game), and style of local gaming group are probably the two biggest factors when trying to grow this game. I myself have started considering jumping back into "grow the game" mode just to see if I can help bring even more players in, but it is a bit tricky with my limited time. As for this list, I will admit it does not seem to bode well, but that being said, I wonder if Warmachine would at least be present if both Hordes and Warmachine were added together? Any who, just my imput on the subject This is one of the few sensible posts in this thread. There are quite a lot of worse-than-amateur suggestions and analyses here. There are a number of very fine and very smart FLGS owner blogs out there, and you can learn a lot from their tradecraft talk. I encourage everybody to go read and learn if they are interested. Spoiler: it turns out that the list is completely expected. If it were a newspaper headline, it would probably read like this: “Warhammer continues to dominate thanks to its massive install base and enthrenched audience” Or “Minis game with one of the most lucrative mass-market licenses (Star Wars) sells well at release” The only people who know exactly how well Privateer is doing work at Privateer. (I suspect there are about five of them.) A number of distributors could band together and give us a good estimate of how much PP product they move, but for obvious reasons that’s probably not likely to happen. A much more important question for everyone here to ask themselves is this: do you have more fun playing Warmachine than you do playing 40k/Legion/whatever? If so, does this periodic ranking even matter? (Spoiler: rankings change over time.)
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Post by NoSuchMethod on Mar 6, 2019 14:07:14 GMT
I also think that it's a lot harder to sell WMH models when you barely stock any, which is the situation in every store I can get to. I don't really follow sales numbers but OP doesn't surprise me. Not only has their physical footprint on shelves dropped to almost nil, but you see online stores with their stuff on clearance every other week lately. Just in the past month, I've seen colossals retailing for $30, which is less than their cost from the distributor.
My group still plays and enjoys the game, but it's at a point where most vets have the armies they want already, and entry points for new blood are pretty limited. So I'm guessing sales have flattened way out.
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Post by NoSuchMethod on Mar 6, 2019 14:18:37 GMT
I wouldn’t hold your breath for “4th edition” just yet. Despite the Internet echo chamber and perpetual doom cycle, this edition is actually pretty great and the rules set is incredibly solid. Worth pointing out, if there ever is a Mark 4, it will be launched 100% for sales reasons and 0% for game reasons. We live in a world of Living Rulebooks instantly distributed to the player base in conveniently-searchable PDF. Any big rules change (that might, in the past, have driven a new edition) could more easily be implemented now by updating the rulebook and the cards database. And it can be done so iteratively, in small steps, without the need for a year long beta test or massive unbalancing of the whole system. Editions are a physical publishing thing. If you want explicit versioning in a ruleset today, you'd do it the way programmers do, eg "WMH 3.14 - March 2019 Dynamic Update".
There's not really a game reason to do new "editions" anymore, ever, so the fact that "this edition is actually pretty great" is irrelevant. The only purpose of launching Mark 4 would be so they could tell retailers and distributors "hey guys, check it out, Mark 4!"
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shiver
Junior Strategist
Posts: 150
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Post by shiver on Mar 6, 2019 15:29:49 GMT
you know I after exploring a little bit around my area, I've discovered a few things. It's the communities around the game too that seem to effect the size of metas. For instance, being kinda vague as to not actually call out a particular group, I have learned a group near-ish me is having problems as it seems to be shrinking, and isn't taking on very many "new" people. It seems to be heavily focused in only tourney play, and from what I've heard even their casual night one must bring two lists, allow opponents to see which will be played, and then rules are followed to a "T" with no take backs such as one would find at a tournament. My group however is still fairly active and consists of mostly new players (1 year or less of the game), and we try to focus on playing more casual funzy lists. We allow for take backs, and occasionally as a more "veteran" player, I'll occasionally do something silly to allow players the opportunity to win or learn how to do something they may not usually get to do. I also know another group near-ish me that is doing similar and they've recently had two new people join. I will say that exposure (how many people actually see and hear about the game), and style of local gaming group are probably the two biggest factors when trying to grow this game. I myself have started considering jumping back into "grow the game" mode just to see if I can help bring even more players in, but it is a bit tricky with my limited time. As for this list, I will admit it does not seem to bode well, but that being said, I wonder if Warmachine would at least be present if both Hordes and Warmachine were added together? Any who, just my imput on the subject This is one of the few sensible posts in this thread. There are quite a lot of worse-than-amateur suggestions and analyses here. There are a number of very fine and very smart FLGS owner blogs out there, and you can learn a lot from their tradecraft talk. I encourage everybody to go read and learn if they are interested. Spoiler: it turns out that the list is completely expected. If it were a newspaper headline, it would probably read like this: “Warhammer continues to dominate thanks to its massive install base and enthrenched audience” Or “Minis game with one of the most lucrative mass-market licenses (Star Wars) sells well at release” The only people who know exactly how well Privateer is doing work at Privateer. (I suspect there are about five of them.) A number of distributors could band together and give us a good estimate of how much PP product they move, but for obvious reasons that’s probably not likely to happen. A much more important question for everyone here to ask themselves is this: do you have more fun playing Warmachine than you do playing 40k/Legion/whatever? If so, does this periodic ranking even matter? (Spoiler: rankings change over time.) Perhaps one of the most frustrating points that are brought up by the "everything is perfect" crowd is that "if you're having fun, what does it matter". Well, it DOES matter, it matters a lot, because people don't want to invest in a game they have long term fears about its viability. WM/H is evaporating from store shelves, has a dwindling player base (except for your area, I know), and has had a lot of upheavals recently, with the warehouse sales, sr staff leaving en masse, NQ prime, the need to kickstart a product, I mean, there is a lot to be concerned about (and I haven't listed all of the concerns) and when we see that its no longer even one of the top 5 after a decade in that stack rank, that's a lot to think about. The cost of a WMH list pair to play with your buddies or at a local event is REALLY high now. Like, upwards of 8 or 9 bills. If I had any concerns I would not want to spend that kind of cash on that game. So, yes, the long term viability matters to a game. Yes, stack ranks will change over time, but there are just too many things going wrong right now to really just sweep under the rug. Sure, they likely don't mean anything significant long term, and when MKIV launches, it'll likely put them above AoS for a bit, and they will go back and forth, but until then, MKIII has a lot of problems from a public perception concept and PP needs to start working to turn that around for MKIV.
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