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Post by 36cygnar24guy36 on Sept 26, 2017 14:29:37 GMT
Alternatively, the tech to cryx was "we don't need to beat cryx if we beat everyone else" Send the person with no good matchup to fight cryx, essentially. This is entirely speculation and has a similar takeaway: if the tech vs cryx in a team event is to lose to cryx and beat everyone else, then there's a problem. Even then, Cryx is once again requiring special consideration in tourney prep above and beyond any other faction. Hell, this is regardless of what factions you are playing. You want to see something funny? Right here on this very site, on the Cryx forum, there is a thread about how to beat other Cryx players, because even some of them are struggling with that. And it's one thing if you say, "Well I'd be worried about Circle if I were playing my Khador, but if I play my Trollblood lists, those are actually not bad there, so I'm more worried about Cryx." It's quite another if EVERYONE has to worry about Cryx, worse still if we all have to go back to tooling one of our two lists just to deal with them. Once the new themes drop I reckon it will be tooling 2 of our 2 lists to deal with Cryx....even at the height of MkII Cryx only demanded we tailor one list especially for them! Soon they will demand both! I hope PP are pleased with this 'All New War'!
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Post by Big Fat Troll on Sept 26, 2017 14:32:43 GMT
Ragnor lost every game, and I don't think the problem is him. All four of them. Not saying it's not a bad showing, but I prefer the ranking with casters who got used at least five times. The format already skews the numbers, looking at less than a handful of games is all but meaningless. I know, that's what I'm saying. Neither he nor Helynna are bad, it's just a small data set getting thrown off.
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Post by pangurban on Sept 26, 2017 14:52:57 GMT
All four of them. Not saying it's not a bad showing, but I prefer the ranking with casters who got used at least five times. The format already skews the numbers, looking at less than a handful of games is all but meaningless. I know, that's what I'm saying. Neither he nor Helynna are bad, it's just a small data set getting thrown off. Helynna went 0-11 though, and at first sight she was passed over more often than not as well. She was only played in middle of the pack teams, not the top or bottom quart, so seemingly at least it's not like she was played by the least good players only either. What drew my attention even more however is seeing three factions with three casters in the bottom 16. That's unexpected, makes those factions stand out and not in a good way. I don't know what to attribute it to though. Cryx dominates the top caster ranking, but that's plausible and it's one faction. Why there are three factions overrepresented at the bottom is harder to explain (and the specific reason might be different for each one).
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Post by spikevash13 on Sept 26, 2017 15:29:05 GMT
I got the data from the website with results (so any mistypes or whatever might mess it up) scraped the data and that made the spreadsheets (I have it go into a form I want ATM trying to get themes as well but since they're not on the results it's more complicated and I didn't have that before, plus work has me doing more work nowadays) As for the data, professor lust, I could email it to you? Or I could try to Google doc but earliest I could do is tomorrow night , and I might be busy then too. There's at least one error, Poland Hussar has Axis1 listed as the caster for one of their circle players during round 4. No idea what he really played. Edit: Also Norway Hugin Xerxis2 won over Axis in round 6 so Axis should have 2 less wins. yeh since I just take what they post that unfortunately happens (always funny when its a caster for a different faction)
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Post by spikevash13 on Sept 26, 2017 15:36:19 GMT
Also I would love to know what is Haley2 win %? Haley 2 was this win loss percent Haley 2 39 34 0.534246575 (also for some reason I ran stuff again and haley was 40-33 so slightly better, not sure what changed, but they do, do edits sometimes) Also she had 1 mirror match so technically 39-32 sonearly 5050 when not mirror-ed Faction by faction (with taking out the mirror matchup) looks like grymkin and skorne didnt have any mirrors ? Circle 79 89 47.02% Convergence 41 39 51.25% Cryx 184 75 71.04% Trolls 14 30 31.82% Skorne 48 60 44.44% Retribution 60 85 41.38% Minions 12 22 35.29% Mercenaries 63 50 55.75% Menoth 62 78 44.29% Legion 68 68 50.00% Khador 87 108 44.62% Cygnar 117 131 47.18% Grymkin 38 22 63.33%
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Post by Big Fat Troll on Sept 26, 2017 17:12:57 GMT
I know, that's what I'm saying. Neither he nor Helynna are bad, it's just a small data set getting thrown off. Helynna went 0-11 though, and at first sight she was passed over more often than not as well. She was only played in middle of the pack teams, not the top or bottom quart, so seemingly at least it's not like she was played by the least good players only either. What drew my attention even more however is seeing three factions with three casters in the bottom 16. That's unexpected, makes those factions stand out and not in a good way. I don't know what to attribute it to though. Cryx dominates the top caster ranking, but that's plausible and it's one faction. Why there are three factions overrepresented at the bottom is harder to explain (and the specific reason might be different for each one). Interesting. So who did she lose to? Was it a lot of Cryx? Yeah, that is a bit odd to see a pattern like that. What's your hypothesis and how do you test it?
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Post by pangurban on Sept 26, 2017 19:27:18 GMT
Helynna went 0-11 though, and at first sight she was passed over more often than not as well. She was only played in middle of the pack teams, not the top or bottom quart, so seemingly at least it's not like she was played by the least good players only either. What drew my attention even more however is seeing three factions with three casters in the bottom 16. That's unexpected, makes those factions stand out and not in a good way. I don't know what to attribute it to though. Cryx dominates the top caster ranking, but that's plausible and it's one faction. Why there are three factions overrepresented at the bottom is harder to explain (and the specific reason might be different for each one). Interesting. So who did she lose to? Was it a lot of Cryx? Yeah, that is a bit odd to see a pattern like that. What's your hypothesis and how do you test it? Never Cryx. Always the other caster vs Cryx (usually Kaelyssa, so that's certainly logical). The list: Butcher3, Kallus2, Makeda1, Dreamer1, Amon1, Vyros2, Lylyth3, Issyria1, Vyros2, Wurmwood1, Nemo3. One Khador, two Legion, one Skorne, one Grymkin, one Protectorate, three mirrors into Retribution, one Circle, one Cygnar. I'd have to check full lists to find anything regarding Hellyna, if there is anything to be found, and I don't have time for that right now.
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Post by spikevash13 on Sept 26, 2017 19:38:15 GMT
heres what hellyna did (looks like a mix of casters she played)
Helynna 1 0 11 Dreamer 1 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Wurmwood 1 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Butcher 3 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Issyria 1 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Kallus 2 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Nemo 3 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Lylyth 3 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Makeda 1 0 1 Helynna 1 0 11 Vyros 2 0 2 Helynna 1 0 11 Amon 1 0 1
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SeBM
Junior Strategist
Posts: 102
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Post by SeBM on Sept 27, 2017 0:11:39 GMT
Weird, I would've thought that a FoW Helynna list would handle Nemo 3. Was she being played out of theme?
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Post by pangurban on Sept 27, 2017 0:18:49 GMT
Weird, I would've thought that a FoW Helynna list would handle Nemo 3. Was she being played out of theme? Retribution Army - 75 / 75 points [Theme] Forges of War (Helynna 1) Magister Helynna [+30] - Chimera [8] - Griffon [8] - Hydra [15] - Hyperion [36] - Manticore [14] - Manticore [14] - Sylys Wyshnalyrr, The Seeker [0(4)] Arcanist Mechanik [0(2)] Arcanist Mechanik [2] House Shyeel Artificer [0(5)] House Shyeel Arcanists [7] - Soulless Escort (1) [1] It's always a game though.
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Post by welshhoppo on Sept 27, 2017 0:21:53 GMT
Weird, I would've thought that a FoW Helynna list would handle Nemo 3. Was she being played out of theme? Out of the 4 Helynna lists from the WTC, 3 were forges of war and one was double Sentinals, none of them were a Pacific rim list, but all were Jack heavy.
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Post by Big Fat Troll on Sept 27, 2017 1:51:12 GMT
I still think it's so weird that Helynna did so badly. Is it just a total fluke? Or do some of the Battle Box casters just have a hard time at the highest levels of competition?
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mergar
Baby's First Wargame
Posts: 8
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WTC Stats
Sept 27, 2017 6:50:27 GMT
via mobile
Post by mergar on Sept 27, 2017 6:50:27 GMT
Weird, I would've thought that a FoW Helynna list would handle Nemo 3. Was she being played out of theme? Player in question was me (Team Swiss Chocolate) Vs Team Canada Moose. It was Round 6. I weathered his feat turn well (only lost 1 griffon, half a manticore and 2/3ds of Hyperion without using feat) and had a decent counterpunch, but my heavies had issues hitting Def 13 and a Lancer went in on Hyperion to Shieldbash out his remaining Cortexboxes on my featturn. Lost on Scenario/Attrition in the end. Overall I think I was favored, but a few bad dice and a very good opponent resulted in the loss.
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Post by lamoron on Sept 27, 2017 7:24:37 GMT
Many matches are so close, that a sample that small isn't really worth anything
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Post by Ianassa on Sept 27, 2017 9:56:54 GMT
The Dutch had a Hellyna player who dropped out and the judges ruled he would auto-loose all games after they couldn't find replacement models. Not sure if those are in the statistics but I think they logically should be.
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