Post by Nyxu on Mar 22, 2017 5:54:44 GMT
Let me break it down:
You want to absolutely -wreck- your opponent's.. say... Stormwall. Your list includes an Iron Lich Overseether, and a unit of Carrion Thralls that hasn't been completely deleted.
Step 1: measure the charge lane, place proxy base if needed within 1" of Stormwall
Step 2: run / charge with Carrion thralls. The object is to get a single thrall with its back to where the Seether will be, within 1".
Step 3: Murder the crap out of the JWM or otherwise remove Arcane Shield.
Step 4: Put a focus (or two) on your Seether with Empower.
Step 5: Move the ILO up to ensure CMD range.
Finally, step 6:
Seether receives Crush! command. It now has +2 to melee attack damage rolls, and an additional attack.
Seether charges Stormwall, swings Mat8 charge attack at PS19 (PS17 base, +2 for Crush!), and since you've removed arcane shield, you're swinging against Armor 19.. except it's armor 17. Dark shroud. (This is why the overseether is insane, btw.) At def10, you've a 1/36 chance of missing. We'll assume that you're not rolling snakes. Your PS14 tusks are swinging Dice-3 against this monster.
Without the bird: 3d6+2, 2d6+2, 2d6-3, 2d6+2(crush), 2d6+2(bought), 2d6+2(bought) - Stormwall has 56 boxes. Soloing Stormwall (13d6+7 having a result of at least 56 (31.48%), multiplied by the 84.44% chance of not rolling snakes on six rolls) is a 26.58% shot.
WITH the bird, you make your initials, but your tusks are last. Def 11 in the back is exactly enough that a 3 hits (mat8, def13 base for carrion). It does add one attack, though I'll note that missing the tusk in either case has the same net result: one less attack on stormwall. You kill the bird, and because you destroyed A model (the carrion thrall), berserk triggers, and you get another attack. This means your free attack can be with your claw, which is dice+2 instead of dice-3. Net of 5 points.
13d6+12 having a result of at least 56 (62.60%) multiplied by the 82.10% chance of rolling 3+ on all seven attacks: 51.40%
(Add parasite and it's basically guaranteed to kill)
Citations:
anydice.com/program/b1bb
Calculation for not-rolling-snakes:
p(nosnakes)= (35/36)^n , where n is the number of rolls.
Addendum:
Point costs:
ILO: 5pts
Seether: 13pts
Warwitch Sirens : 8pts
26 pts + one single wound model from an infantry unit.
Stormwall: 39 points.
Let's move this over to another possible scenario for why the Overseether + tuskbird combo is absolutely hilarious:
26 points vs 24 points in Khador: Two Juggernauts. (The cheapest 10/20/34 in Khador)
I don't have the time or mental bandwidth to do an in depth analysis, but you're wrecking the first jugg on attack 4 of 6 ~60% of the time, leaving two attacks left.
Berserk gives you another, which leaves the remaining juggernaut on about 10 boxes.
That's an entirely pasted juggernaut -and- most of a second from a single heavy with support. Without debuffs. Add parasite on the first and you're looking at a non-insignificant (>15%) chance of eating two heavies (that happened to both be within 1" reach of a charging seether )
You want to absolutely -wreck- your opponent's.. say... Stormwall. Your list includes an Iron Lich Overseether, and a unit of Carrion Thralls that hasn't been completely deleted.
Step 1: measure the charge lane, place proxy base if needed within 1" of Stormwall
Step 2: run / charge with Carrion thralls. The object is to get a single thrall with its back to where the Seether will be, within 1".
Step 3: Murder the crap out of the JWM or otherwise remove Arcane Shield.
Step 4: Put a focus (or two) on your Seether with Empower.
Step 5: Move the ILO up to ensure CMD range.
Finally, step 6:
Seether receives Crush! command. It now has +2 to melee attack damage rolls, and an additional attack.
Seether charges Stormwall, swings Mat8 charge attack at PS19 (PS17 base, +2 for Crush!), and since you've removed arcane shield, you're swinging against Armor 19.. except it's armor 17. Dark shroud. (This is why the overseether is insane, btw.) At def10, you've a 1/36 chance of missing. We'll assume that you're not rolling snakes. Your PS14 tusks are swinging Dice-3 against this monster.
Without the bird: 3d6+2, 2d6+2, 2d6-3, 2d6+2(crush), 2d6+2(bought), 2d6+2(bought) - Stormwall has 56 boxes. Soloing Stormwall (13d6+7 having a result of at least 56 (31.48%), multiplied by the 84.44% chance of not rolling snakes on six rolls) is a 26.58% shot.
WITH the bird, you make your initials, but your tusks are last. Def 11 in the back is exactly enough that a 3 hits (mat8, def13 base for carrion). It does add one attack, though I'll note that missing the tusk in either case has the same net result: one less attack on stormwall. You kill the bird, and because you destroyed A model (the carrion thrall), berserk triggers, and you get another attack. This means your free attack can be with your claw, which is dice+2 instead of dice-3. Net of 5 points.
13d6+12 having a result of at least 56 (62.60%) multiplied by the 82.10% chance of rolling 3+ on all seven attacks: 51.40%
(Add parasite and it's basically guaranteed to kill)
Citations:
anydice.com/program/b1bb
Calculation for not-rolling-snakes:
p(nosnakes)= (35/36)^n , where n is the number of rolls.
Addendum:
Point costs:
ILO: 5pts
Seether: 13pts
Warwitch Sirens : 8pts
26 pts + one single wound model from an infantry unit.
Stormwall: 39 points.
Let's move this over to another possible scenario for why the Overseether + tuskbird combo is absolutely hilarious:
26 points vs 24 points in Khador: Two Juggernauts. (The cheapest 10/20/34 in Khador)
I don't have the time or mental bandwidth to do an in depth analysis, but you're wrecking the first jugg on attack 4 of 6 ~60% of the time, leaving two attacks left.
Berserk gives you another, which leaves the remaining juggernaut on about 10 boxes.
That's an entirely pasted juggernaut -and- most of a second from a single heavy with support. Without debuffs. Add parasite on the first and you're looking at a non-insignificant (>15%) chance of eating two heavies (that happened to both be within 1" reach of a charging seether )
